The Backstory: Why February 28 Did Not Come Out of Nowhere

A Conflict Seventeen Years in the Making

The 2026 Iran war did not emerge from a vacuum. After the Middle Eastern crisis began in 2023, Iran and Israel exchanged missile strikes in 2024, and Israel and the US launched airstrikes against Iran in the Twelve-Day War in June 2025. Each of those episodes was treated, at the time, as a contained escalation. Each one was not. They formed a ladder whose final rung was February 28.

Beginning in late December 2025, massive nationwide anti-government protests erupted in Iran, driven largely by economic crisis, the collapse of the rial, and rising prices. The protests, which included calls for regime change, became the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution, spreading to over 100 cities across the country. The Iranian government responded with violent repression, including massacres of protesters, with the deadliest incidents occurring on January 8 and 10, 2026.

The protests fundamentally altered the strategic calculus in Washington and Jerusalem. A regime that was killing thousands of its own citizens in the streets was simultaneously negotiating over nuclear enrichment levels with Omani mediators in Geneva. The contradiction was not lost on decision-makers.

The Nuclear Talks That Came Within Hours of a Deal

On February 27, 2026, just before the strikes began, Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi said a breakthrough had been reached and Iran had agreed both to never stockpile enriched uranium and to full verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Furthermore, Iran had agreed to irreversibly downgrade its current enriched uranium to the lowest level possible. Al-Busaidi said peace was within reach. Talks were expected to resume on March 2.

That statement was made less than fourteen hours before the first Tomahawk missiles were launched. It remains one of the most striking facts of the entire conflict: a diplomatic resolution appeared within reach, and the strikes came anyway.

On February 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a historic opportunity to reach a nuclear agreement with the United States was within reach to avert military conflict. A third round of indirect talks took place in Geneva on February 26, where reports indicated the sides remained far from agreement. On February 20, President Trump had issued a 10-day deadline for a deal, and on February 28, following unsatisfactory results in the third round of negotiations, US and Israeli strikes against Iran began.

Day One: February 28, Operation Epic Fury

How the Opening Strike Was Executed

At 20:38 UTC, US President Donald Trump gave the order to proceed with Operation Epic Fury. At 06:35 UTC, CENTCOM announced that it and partner forces had begun airstrikes against Iran. US warships launched Tomahawk missiles, while the US Army used HIMARS launchers. The US military stated that it used B-2 stealth bombers, as well as B-1 Lancers and B-52 Stratofortresses, to strike fortified ballistic missile facilities inside Iran.

At 06:45 UTC, the Israeli Air Force began an unprecedented wave of decapitation strikes. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several high officials attending three meetings at his residential compound were killed, as were members of his family. The United States Navy, United States Air Force, and United States Marine Corps focused primarily on command-and-control infrastructure, missiles, UAV sites, and radar installations.

The United States and Israel calculated that they had greater opportunity to advance their objectives through military means than by diplomatic means, given Iran's weakened position after years of sanctions, recent destabilising protests, damage inflicted during the twelve-day war with Israel in June 2025, and the diminished position of Iran's allies during the Israel-Hamas War.

Iran's Immediate Retaliation

The opening salvo took out the heart of the Iranian regime, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and triggered a torrent of hundreds of retaliatory missiles and thousands of drones from Iran across the Middle East. The attacks left enormous damage, more than 2,000 people dead in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel, and hundreds of thousands of travellers stranded.

In the first four days of conflict, the United Arab Emirates suffered the highest number of strikes, both intercepted and successful, followed by Kuwait and Bahrain, all hosts to US military bases. In the UAE, strikes targeted Abu Dhabi's airport and landmark sites. In Kuwait, attacks were carried out on US facilities and oil fields, while friendly fire downed three US F-15 fighter jets. Bahrain carried out the fewest interceptions and suffered damage in the capital, Manama, at the airport, and near US Fifth Fleet facilities.

The First Week: Escalation Across Nine Countries

March 1 to March 7: Regional Contagion

On March 1, an Iranian ballistic missile strike on central Israel's Beit Shemesh killed nine people and injured more than twenty. Iran had previously warned that if it were attacked, it would respond by targeting US military facilities across the region, which it considers legitimate targets. US forces have struck more than 7,000 targets in Iran since February 28, according to US Central Command.

On March 1, Trump announced that the US had accepted an Iranian proposal to further negotiations. Trump later said US operations were to be completed within a four-week timetable. However, Ali Larijani subsequently ruled out talks. On March 2, the US embassy in Kuwait was struck and subsequently closed indefinitely. A senior IRGC official said he would set fire to any ship coming through the Strait of Hormuz, and added that no oil would leave the area.

To avert further Iranian strikes, the E3, the UK, France, and Germany, resolved to back, if needed, proportionate military defensive measures against drones and ballistic missiles. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced approval of US use of British bases for defensive strikes on Iran.

The Hezbollah Front Opens

The conflict also saw the resumption of hostilities between Israel and Iran's close ally Hezbollah in Lebanon, which had been observing a fragile ceasefire since 2024. Despite the ceasefire, which required the disarmament of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah was seeking to restore its military capabilities and Israel continued to strike targets in southern Lebanon almost daily.

Projectiles were launched from within Lebanon toward Israel in the early hours of March 2, setting off sirens across Haifa and the Upper Galilee. The IDF spokesperson issued an emergency statement saying that the attack was to be considered an official declaration of war by Hezbollah, vowing to neutralise the threat. The IDF later announced that it struck more than seventy targets in Dahieh and southern Lebanon.

Cultural Heritage Lost to Airstrikes

Several historic and cultural sites, including UNESCO World Heritage Sites, were damaged during the first week of war. On March 2, a strike on Arg Square damaged nearby Golestan Palace, prompting UNESCO to issue a statement of concern. On March 5, the Azadi Sport Complex was bombed. A March 8 strike on Falak-ol-Aflak, which was marked with a blue shield emblem, damaged several sections of the site. Strikes on Isfahan on March 9 damaged Naqsh-e Jahan Square, Chehel Sotoun, Ali Qapu, the Shah Mosque, Jameh Mosque, and Teymouri Hall.

According to the World Health Organization, at least eighteen hospitals and health facilities have been hit. The deadliest single incident occurred in the city of Minab in southeastern Iran, where a strike on an elementary girls' school killed more than 170 people, most of them schoolgirls.

For the continuation of the article, click the link.